U of S | Mailing List Archive | alt-photo-process-l | Re: math question verrrrrry off topic

Re: math question verrrrrry off topic

Hmm, I thought that's what we all already have said, isn't it? That that theoretical probability (1/4x1/4x1/4) would hold only if assumptions were met, and since assumptions are obviously not met (for example, judging is not a random lottery of course but is done on the basis of criteria, arbitrary or otherwise but certainly not random). Also, no one has said whether the 600 entries are 600 works or 600 people; I was assuming that they are 600 works representing fewer than 600 people, in other words people could submit more than one work, in which case, as I said, the number of works submitted per person would also have to be figured into the equation somehow. Besides, if one person submits ten pieces and another person submits one, the ten pieces by the one person couldn't be considered independent entries in the same way one of those ten could be considered independent of the one from the other person, and independence is also an assumption that must be met in order to consider the probability of acceptance to be the same for all entries.

On Jan 18, 2008, at 4:25 PM, Diana Bloomfield wrote:

Okay, Chris. Here is it-- straight from my resident statistician here:

If they were the only 3 people from that institution who applied, AND if judging was completely random, then the probability of this is roughly 1 in 64 (key word: roughly). If more than that applied from this same institution, and only 3 got in, then the calculation will be more complex.

Hope that helps. :)
On Jan 17, 2008, at 12:00 PM, Christina Z. Anderson wrote:

Where else but this list can I ask these weird questions about chemistry and math and computers and alt???

OK for you math people (Yves?): If there is a show and 600 entries, and 150 are accepted, there is a 1 in 4 chance of acceptance. If 3 people from the same institution are accepted what percent chance is that--is it 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 or a 1.5% chance or is it a more complex formula?

Forgive the off topic request but it does relate to photo as 3 of our program got into a photo show and I want to be able to mathematically brag about it to the dept. head/dean.

Christina Z. Anderson
Assistant Professor
Photo Option Coordinator
Montana State University