RE: math question verrrrrry off topic
I don't know. Katharine said that in a casino environment, the probability
of the next throw does NOT depend on the previous throw.
This is the part that I said my mind got confused. I took a statistics class
in college and got an A, but I am still not very clear about actual,
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Christina Z. Anderson [mailto:email@example.com]
> Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 12:29 PM
> To: firstname.lastname@example.org
> Subject: Re: math question verrrrrry off topic
> Aren't you asking two different things?
> What is the probability of rolling a 1--it is 1/6.
> What is the probability of rolling a 1 2x in a row--it is 1/6
> x 1/6, correct?
> So why are you wrong?
> Now, as far as Tor says, then, my 3 out of 150 out of 600 is now:
> 3 out of 150 out of 600 x 2 out of 149 x 599 out of 1 out of
> 148 out of 598 arrrgggggghhhhhhhhh
> Is there a math list and do people argue about math as much as gum???
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Dave S" <email@example.com>
> To: <firstname.lastname@example.org>
> Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 10:14 AM
> Subject: RE: math question verrrrrry off topic
> > Huh!!!?
> > After all this time, I thought I finally got it right, but
> it looks like
> > what I got is the flipped/wrong version! Since this is off
> topic, I won't
> > ask further. I will have to read some stats book again.
> > Good that I don't go to casino! Whew! :-)
> > Dave
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: Katharine Thayer [mailto:email@example.com]
> >> Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 11:14 AM
> >> To: firstname.lastname@example.org
> >> Subject: Re: math question verrrrrry off topic
> >> This is (one reason) why casinos make so much money, because
> >> people make the mistake of thinking the probability of the
> >> next throw depends somehow on how the die has fallen on the
> >> last throw, but it
> >> doesn't. No matter how many times you throw the die, and
> no matter
> >> how the die has fallen before, the probability of a 1 on the
> >> next throw is still 1/6.
> >> On Jan 19, 2008, at 7:57 AM, Dave S wrote:
> >> > I must say that even in simple probability, the concept
> is a little
> >> > hard to grasp for me. I can do the math, but to FEEL it is
> >> different.
> >> >
> >> > Say I am throwing a dice now. The chance of getting a 1 is 1/6.
> >> > Let's say I
> >> > did get a 1. Now I am throwing again. I pick up the same
> >> dice and make
> >> > the same random throw. On one hand I think everything is
> >> the same, so
> >> > the probability of getting 1 should still be 1/6. On the
> >> other hand,
> >> > of course, chances of getting two 1's in a row is lesser, so the
> >> > probability is now 1/36.
> >> >
> >> > If this is an exam in the statistics class, I can do the math and
> >> > pass, but up to this day, my mind would still flip one way
> >> or another
> >> > because both are making some sense to me. Isn't this weird?
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > Dave