RE: math question verrrrrry off topic
I don't know. Katharine said that in a casino environment, the probability of the next throw does NOT depend on the previous throw. This is the part that I said my mind got confused. I took a statistics class in college and got an A, but I am still not very clear about actual, real-life applications.... Dave > -----Original Message----- > From: Christina Z. Anderson [mailto:zphoto@montana.net] > Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 12:29 PM > To: alt-photo-process-l@usask.ca > Subject: Re: math question verrrrrry off topic > > Dave, > Aren't you asking two different things? > What is the probability of rolling a 1--it is 1/6. > What is the probability of rolling a 1 2x in a row--it is 1/6 > x 1/6, correct? > So why are you wrong? > > Now, as far as Tor says, then, my 3 out of 150 out of 600 is now: > 3 out of 150 out of 600 x 2 out of 149 x 599 out of 1 out of > 148 out of 598 arrrgggggghhhhhhhhh > > Is there a math list and do people argue about math as much as gum??? > Chris > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Dave S" <fotodave@dsoemarko.us> > To: <alt-photo-process-l@usask.ca> > Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 10:14 AM > Subject: RE: math question verrrrrry off topic > > > > Huh!!!? > > > > After all this time, I thought I finally got it right, but > it looks like > > what I got is the flipped/wrong version! Since this is off > topic, I won't > > ask further. I will have to read some stats book again. > > > > Good that I don't go to casino! Whew! :-) > > > > > > Dave > > > >> -----Original Message----- > >> From: Katharine Thayer [mailto:kthayer@pacifier.com] > >> Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 11:14 AM > >> To: alt-photo-process-l@usask.ca > >> Subject: Re: math question verrrrrry off topic > >> > >> This is (one reason) why casinos make so much money, because > >> people make the mistake of thinking the probability of the > >> next throw depends somehow on how the die has fallen on the > >> last throw, but it > >> doesn't. No matter how many times you throw the die, and > no matter > >> how the die has fallen before, the probability of a 1 on the > >> next throw is still 1/6. > >> > >> > >> > >> On Jan 19, 2008, at 7:57 AM, Dave S wrote: > >> > >> > I must say that even in simple probability, the concept > is a little > >> > hard to grasp for me. I can do the math, but to FEEL it is > >> different. > >> > > >> > Say I am throwing a dice now. The chance of getting a 1 is 1/6. > >> > Let's say I > >> > did get a 1. Now I am throwing again. I pick up the same > >> dice and make > >> > the same random throw. On one hand I think everything is > >> the same, so > >> > the probability of getting 1 should still be 1/6. On the > >> other hand, > >> > of course, chances of getting two 1's in a row is lesser, so the > >> > probability is now 1/36. > >> > > >> > If this is an exam in the statistics class, I can do the math and > >> > pass, but up to this day, my mind would still flip one way > >> or another > >> > because both are making some sense to me. Isn't this weird? > >> > > >> > > >> > Dave
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