Re: math question verrrrrry off topic
What you are having trouble with is known as the Gambler's Fallacy
(a.k.a. the Monte Carlo fallacy). Check out
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
< http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy>
Dave S wrote:
I don't know. Katharine said that in a casino environment, the probability
of the next throw does NOT depend on the previous throw.
This is the part that I said my mind got confused. I took a statistics class
in college and got an A, but I am still not very clear about actual,
real-life applications....
Dave
-----Original Message-----
From: Christina Z. Anderson [mailto:zphoto@montana.net]
Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 12:29 PM
To: alt-photo-process-l@usask.ca
Subject: Re: math question verrrrrry off topic
Dave,
Aren't you asking two different things?
What is the probability of rolling a 1--it is 1/6.
What is the probability of rolling a 1 2x in a row--it is 1/6
x 1/6, correct?
So why are you wrong?
Now, as far as Tor says, then, my 3 out of 150 out of 600 is now:
3 out of 150 out of 600 x 2 out of 149 x 599 out of 1 out of
148 out of 598 arrrgggggghhhhhhhhh
Is there a math list and do people argue about math as much as gum???
Chris
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dave S" <fotodave@dsoemarko.us>
To: <alt-photo-process-l@usask.ca>
Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 10:14 AM
Subject: RE: math question verrrrrry off topic
Huh!!!?
After all this time, I thought I finally got it right, but
it looks like
what I got is the flipped/wrong version! Since this is off
topic, I won't
ask further. I will have to read some stats book again.
Good that I don't go to casino! Whew! :-)
Dave
-----Original Message-----
From: Katharine Thayer [mailto:kthayer@pacifier.com]
Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 11:14 AM
To: alt-photo-process-l@usask.ca
Subject: Re: math question verrrrrry off topic
This is (one reason) why casinos make so much money, because
people make the mistake of thinking the probability of the
next throw depends somehow on how the die has fallen on the
last throw, but it
doesn't. No matter how many times you throw the die, and
no matter
how the die has fallen before, the probability of a 1 on the
next throw is still 1/6.
On Jan 19, 2008, at 7:57 AM, Dave S wrote:
I must say that even in simple probability, the concept
is a little
hard to grasp for me. I can do the math, but to FEEL it is
different.
Say I am throwing a dice now. The chance of getting a 1 is 1/6.
Let's say I
did get a 1. Now I am throwing again. I pick up the same
dice and make
the same random throw. On one hand I think everything is
the same, so
the probability of getting 1 should still be 1/6. On the
other hand,
of course, chances of getting two 1's in a row is lesser, so the
probability is now 1/36.
If this is an exam in the statistics class, I can do the math and
pass, but up to this day, my mind would still flip one way
or another
because both are making some sense to me. Isn't this weird?
Dave
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