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Re: Anticipating the future



Judy said:

>Consider the possibility that THIS is the golden
>age of computer equipment.
>Which is to say, "mature" computers will, I promise, be junkier than now,
>the softwear sloppier, the "manuals" dumber, and tech support will be 12
>year-olds who know less than you do (well that's now, but even worse).
>Also, they will be so full of useless features, ie., sales gimmicks, they
>will be actually harder to use.

Hi Judy,

I couldn't disagree more. In just 15 years I've seen my own desktop grow 
from the original 128 Mac (with no hard drive) to machines that 
communicate with the world, print my postage, edit my photographs, manage 
my finances (not a big job unfortunately), let me publish books, make my 
negatives, etc. Part of the "problem" with today's computers is that 
we're assigning to them so many more tasks than we could have even 
IMAGINED just a few years ago.

It's easy to understand the fear that "the industry" will try to maintain 
the current momentum of change, upgrades and obsolescence that plagues 
our digital lives. But there is nothing "golden" about this age of 
computers...except the income figures of some of the giants behind the 
mess. But time and progress will take care of that; history is too rich 
with examples to believe the status quo will prevail. Maybe a better 
product comparison (better than refrigerators anyway, since you seem to 
have a way with them, though it's hard to imagine you really MISS 
defrosting with pans of hot water and an ice pick) would be the 
automobile. (Now please don't launch into some stereotypical New Yorker 
rant about not needing or liking cars. Ha!) Ever notice how few cars you 
see broken down along the road compared to 20 years ago? It's because 
this is another product that's near maturity. On the down side, the 
romanticism of the auto has diminished. As a youth, I'd wait anxiously 
for the new models each fall, eager to first spy the taller fin or new 
retractable hard-top. Kids today don't share that same anticipation for 
the wind-tunnel designed clones that all ride and perform superbly, but 
similarly. You just watch: computers will take the same path. 

While writing this, my wife, Jill, is making Bromoils that she contact 
printed from desktop digital negatives (using Epson Glossy Film)! She's 
thrilled to find a way to use "flawed" (but wonderful) negatives to make 
prints that finally capture the mood and tones she always envisioned for 
her images. This certainly isn't to say that if the Mac hiccoughs and 
says it can't see the printer that there isn't an element of frustration. 
But heck, going into the darkroom to find your Dektol looking like 
day-old coffee isn't a thrill either!

To suggest that computers will be more hassle in the future is something 
I wouldn't have anticipated coming from you Judy, You're usually so on 
target with your observations. :-)

Dan 

www.danburkholder.com