RE: math question verrrrrry off topic
Oh, it has a good explanation. I read and thought and read and thought, and now I get it. Thanks! Hope it will stay this time. :-) off to casino now, Dave > -----Original Message----- > From: Iain [mailto:iain.coghill@eiflex.com] > Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 12:59 PM > To: alt-photo-process-l@usask.ca > Subject: Re: math question verrrrrry off topic > > What you are having trouble with is known as the Gambler's > Fallacy (a.k.a. the Monte Carlo fallacy). Check out > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy > <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy> > > Dave S wrote: > > I don't know. Katharine said that in a casino environment, the > > probability of the next throw does NOT depend on the previous throw. > > > > This is the part that I said my mind got confused. I took a > statistics > > class in college and got an A, but I am still not very clear about > > actual, real-life applications.... > > > > > > Dave > > > > > >> -----Original Message----- > >> From: Christina Z. Anderson [mailto:zphoto@montana.net] > >> Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 12:29 PM > >> To: alt-photo-process-l@usask.ca > >> Subject: Re: math question verrrrrry off topic > >> > >> Dave, > >> Aren't you asking two different things? > >> What is the probability of rolling a 1--it is 1/6. > >> What is the probability of rolling a 1 2x in a row--it is > 1/6 x 1/6, > >> correct? > >> So why are you wrong? > >> > >> Now, as far as Tor says, then, my 3 out of 150 out of 600 is now: > >> 3 out of 150 out of 600 x 2 out of 149 x 599 out of 1 out of > >> 148 out of 598 arrrgggggghhhhhhhhh > >> > >> Is there a math list and do people argue about math as > much as gum??? > >> Chris > >> > >> ----- Original Message ----- > >> From: "Dave S" <fotodave@dsoemarko.us> > >> To: <alt-photo-process-l@usask.ca> > >> Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 10:14 AM > >> Subject: RE: math question verrrrrry off topic > >> > >> > >> > >>> Huh!!!? > >>> > >>> After all this time, I thought I finally got it right, but > >>> > >> it looks like > >> > >>> what I got is the flipped/wrong version! Since this is off > >>> > >> topic, I won't > >> > >>> ask further. I will have to read some stats book again. > >>> > >>> Good that I don't go to casino! Whew! :-) > >>> > >>> > >>> Dave > >>> > >>> > >>>> -----Original Message----- > >>>> From: Katharine Thayer [mailto:kthayer@pacifier.com] > >>>> Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 11:14 AM > >>>> To: alt-photo-process-l@usask.ca > >>>> Subject: Re: math question verrrrrry off topic > >>>> > >>>> This is (one reason) why casinos make so much money, > because people > >>>> make the mistake of thinking the probability of the next throw > >>>> depends somehow on how the die has fallen on the last > throw, but it > >>>> doesn't. No matter how many times you throw the die, and > >>>> > >> no matter > >> > >>>> how the die has fallen before, the probability of a 1 on > the next > >>>> throw is still 1/6. > >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > >>>> On Jan 19, 2008, at 7:57 AM, Dave S wrote: > >>>> > >>>> > >>>>> I must say that even in simple probability, the concept > >>>>> > >> is a little > >> > >>>>> hard to grasp for me. I can do the math, but to FEEL it is > >>>>> > >>>> different. > >>>> > >>>>> Say I am throwing a dice now. The chance of getting a 1 is 1/6. > >>>>> Let's say I > >>>>> did get a 1. Now I am throwing again. I pick up the same > >>>>> > >>>> dice and make > >>>> > >>>>> the same random throw. On one hand I think everything is > >>>>> > >>>> the same, so > >>>> > >>>>> the probability of getting 1 should still be 1/6. On the > >>>>> > >>>> other hand, > >>>> > >>>>> of course, chances of getting two 1's in a row is > lesser, so the > >>>>> probability is now 1/36. > >>>>> > >>>>> If this is an exam in the statistics class, I can do > the math and > >>>>> pass, but up to this day, my mind would still flip one way > >>>>> > >>>> or another > >>>> > >>>>> because both are making some sense to me. Isn't this weird? > >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> Dave > >>>>> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
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