RE: math question verrrrrry off topic
Oh, it has a good explanation. I read and thought and read and thought, and
now I get it. Thanks! Hope it will stay this time. :-)
off to casino now,
Dave
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Iain [mailto:iain.coghill@eiflex.com]
> Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 12:59 PM
> To: alt-photo-process-l@usask.ca
> Subject: Re: math question verrrrrry off topic
>
> What you are having trouble with is known as the Gambler's
> Fallacy (a.k.a. the Monte Carlo fallacy). Check out
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
> <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy>
>
> Dave S wrote:
> > I don't know. Katharine said that in a casino environment, the
> > probability of the next throw does NOT depend on the previous throw.
> >
> > This is the part that I said my mind got confused. I took a
> statistics
> > class in college and got an A, but I am still not very clear about
> > actual, real-life applications....
> >
> >
> > Dave
> >
> >
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: Christina Z. Anderson [mailto:zphoto@montana.net]
> >> Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 12:29 PM
> >> To: alt-photo-process-l@usask.ca
> >> Subject: Re: math question verrrrrry off topic
> >>
> >> Dave,
> >> Aren't you asking two different things?
> >> What is the probability of rolling a 1--it is 1/6.
> >> What is the probability of rolling a 1 2x in a row--it is
> 1/6 x 1/6,
> >> correct?
> >> So why are you wrong?
> >>
> >> Now, as far as Tor says, then, my 3 out of 150 out of 600 is now:
> >> 3 out of 150 out of 600 x 2 out of 149 x 599 out of 1 out of
> >> 148 out of 598 arrrgggggghhhhhhhhh
> >>
> >> Is there a math list and do people argue about math as
> much as gum???
> >> Chris
> >>
> >> ----- Original Message -----
> >> From: "Dave S" <fotodave@dsoemarko.us>
> >> To: <alt-photo-process-l@usask.ca>
> >> Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 10:14 AM
> >> Subject: RE: math question verrrrrry off topic
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>> Huh!!!?
> >>>
> >>> After all this time, I thought I finally got it right, but
> >>>
> >> it looks like
> >>
> >>> what I got is the flipped/wrong version! Since this is off
> >>>
> >> topic, I won't
> >>
> >>> ask further. I will have to read some stats book again.
> >>>
> >>> Good that I don't go to casino! Whew! :-)
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> Dave
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>> -----Original Message-----
> >>>> From: Katharine Thayer [mailto:kthayer@pacifier.com]
> >>>> Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 11:14 AM
> >>>> To: alt-photo-process-l@usask.ca
> >>>> Subject: Re: math question verrrrrry off topic
> >>>>
> >>>> This is (one reason) why casinos make so much money,
> because people
> >>>> make the mistake of thinking the probability of the next throw
> >>>> depends somehow on how the die has fallen on the last
> throw, but it
> >>>> doesn't. No matter how many times you throw the die, and
> >>>>
> >> no matter
> >>
> >>>> how the die has fallen before, the probability of a 1 on
> the next
> >>>> throw is still 1/6.
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> On Jan 19, 2008, at 7:57 AM, Dave S wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>> I must say that even in simple probability, the concept
> >>>>>
> >> is a little
> >>
> >>>>> hard to grasp for me. I can do the math, but to FEEL it is
> >>>>>
> >>>> different.
> >>>>
> >>>>> Say I am throwing a dice now. The chance of getting a 1 is 1/6.
> >>>>> Let's say I
> >>>>> did get a 1. Now I am throwing again. I pick up the same
> >>>>>
> >>>> dice and make
> >>>>
> >>>>> the same random throw. On one hand I think everything is
> >>>>>
> >>>> the same, so
> >>>>
> >>>>> the probability of getting 1 should still be 1/6. On the
> >>>>>
> >>>> other hand,
> >>>>
> >>>>> of course, chances of getting two 1's in a row is
> lesser, so the
> >>>>> probability is now 1/36.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> If this is an exam in the statistics class, I can do
> the math and
> >>>>> pass, but up to this day, my mind would still flip one way
> >>>>>
> >>>> or another
> >>>>
> >>>>> because both are making some sense to me. Isn't this weird?
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Dave
> >>>>>
> >
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